Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a2a0c1b414354e6bf3d86facc71e91b62109a3aa4abf8c72e3a25b045acaed8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9868…3120backed Yes | 33c | 320$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 16c | 281.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 277.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…eb69backed No | 53c | 231$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 10c | 200.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 6c | 177.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…0287backed Yes | 47c | 169.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c6…eb9bbacked No | 67c | 116$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 55c | 113.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496e…26afbacked No | 67c | 104$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…faafbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 70c | 95.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 58c | 85.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebe…7964backed No | 52c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1a…9cd3backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…3951backed No | 53c | 74.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffc…c12fbacked Yes | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec5…a31cbacked Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec84…cb9ebacked No | 75c | 61.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b7…3be0backed No | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…ea6ebacked Yes | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked No | 56c | 56.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe296…5b1cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 25c | 48.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4029…7a5ebacked No | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…ebefbacked Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bd…6ff4backed No | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c0…0131backed No | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…5e48backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 66c | 39.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67ff…1855backed Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229f…6ea8backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1323…32e1backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2e…c4aebacked Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…ee23backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…59f6backed Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508e…f5e6backed Yes | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…18d1backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb08d…a40cbacked No | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…c528backed No | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…13dbbacked No | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…ba55backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…d0c2backed Yes | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…3c28backed Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…d443backed No | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 54c | 25.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…73edbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7b…464bbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b3…02e0backed Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…a3bfbacked Yes | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…7e8abacked Yes | 58c | 21.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…29febacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…b12cbacked No | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…396cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5435…fc73backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.