Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbae7faf8443f687d871d6c9041d3852859bb658201dcc84e8495d1a38b0bebe4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdde5…fd02backed Yes | 0c | 3,499$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,513$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 2c | 589.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe7…0282backed Yes | 27c | 353$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 63c | 221.96$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 10c | 202.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238c…04f2backed Yes | 23c | 159$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…6720backed No | 73c | 152$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 21c | 150.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…5c08backed No | 77c | 136$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 20c | 130$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed No | 80c | 125.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…abb4backed No | 73c | 116$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa7…faa0backed No | 77c | 112$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…8213backed No | 73c | 101$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 75c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 80c | 85.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d58…fd3cbacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe81…8ccfbacked Yes | 27c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1562…db1cbacked Yes | 23c | 72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 60c | 64.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7337…bfaebacked Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed Yes | 60c | 52.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -6.5wins | -0.43per pick | 50cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…8d50backed Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e3…c9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…6c55backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…ab32backed No | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…ea6ebacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…fa72backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…bf4abacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…0342backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a8…423dbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8404…2761backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…0740backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…9189backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…c69dbacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…34b9backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.