Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c698d9a2e6a5611a41a850e7bd2aa4d52e83f7f4893dbcb77ff01701f7d2f62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdde5…fd02backed Yes | 15c | 1,206$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.74 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 573.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.19 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 4c | 560.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.52 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb86a…6400backed Yes | 32c | 371$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 4c | 335.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…d095backed Yes | 33c | 335$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 60c | 320$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.03 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 46c | 270.29$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 270$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 39c | 228.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.97 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x223b…c968backed No | 67c | 224$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c6…b553backed Yes | 37c | 215$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 185$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.9 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 62c | 163.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…1accbacked No | 67c | 153$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de3…4fa1backed No | 68c | 149$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c4…7d8bbacked No | 68c | 149$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e5…c0fbbacked No | 68c | 149$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…7492backed Yes | 32c | 144$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…34f4backed Yes | 30c | 141$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 69c | 130$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa7…faa0backed No | 75c | 115$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f75…f8a2backed No | 63c | 111$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 14c | 92.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 63c | 85.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…0740backed Yes | 23c | 80.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…92dbbacked No | 70c | 74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 43c | 68.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…a79ebacked No | 68c | 68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…03abbacked Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9501…4e65backed Yes | 25c | 58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a64…a3a7backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…1853backed Yes | 57c | 54.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…eb81backed Yes | 29c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked No | 73c | 48.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff46…9d63backed Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…4ea2backed No | 74c | 43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3c…0c91backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c9…a8f0backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb094…ab6abacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b2…019ebacked Yes | 56c | 30.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 49c | 30.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…0f09backed No | 68c | 28.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8364…2e46backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f63…c942backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…a061backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…b5d1backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…012cbacked No | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7b…464bbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…fcc2backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd88f…1309backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cb…a3eebacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5758…6c56backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e24…44b1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1a…9cd3backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d9…93fabacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d95…4fe1backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…b699backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…f53bbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084a…40d7backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.