Fifa International · resolved market
Will North Macedonia vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a308eb57d30113df4a180c25f870cf6b535e2f194ae0f25182bffd04ebe45aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 5c | 27,651$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.55 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 4c | 11,636$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.45 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d56…c0d8backed Yes | 5c | 6,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…7d1fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,050$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 4c | 3,894$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.76 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…9398backed Yes | 5c | 1,791$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Yes | 5c | 830$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 4c | 456$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will North Macedonia vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw?this page
- Will Liechtenstein win on 2025-09-07?No won
- Will North Macedonia win on 2025-09-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.