Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Toby Doeden and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governor Republican Primary runoff election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a3bcb28d0a186678a90cb2682a624d91baa63823263a938d9d89b2b4f28c3df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 50c | 59.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 51.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1788…6c66backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 31.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 52c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…927fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toby Doeden and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governor Republican Primary runoff election?this page
- Will Dusty Johnson and Larry Rhoden advance to the South Dakota Governor Republican Primary runoff election?No won
- Will Toby Doeden and Larry Rhoden advance to the South Dakota Governor Republican Primary runoff election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.