Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4ceeb9ef22ff272302219bdbcfd66a9cba21b13ca9e46000e82adcd3f85111
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 675.74$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 24c | 583.93$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 472.66$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 452.44$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 292.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 18c | 277.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 19c | 263.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 253.27$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…2fe2backed Yes | 14c | 233.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 219.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 11c | 172.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 76c | 170.3$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 143.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 113.96$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 110.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 70c | 69.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 28c | 66.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 22c | 53.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 52.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 75c | 44.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 33c | 42.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…2ddfbacked No | 77c | 37.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 29.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 80c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 69c | 24.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 80c | 24.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 24.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 23.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 77c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 77c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 73c | 17.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 80c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 67c | 16.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 73c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 71c | 14.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 70c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 70°F or higher on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.