Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ad3b714ac85c0ee30e55ec2222ef597043c49ae604c4b179e45fa8b1c954096
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 313.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 305.41$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 74c | 284.5$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.46 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 46c | 271.48$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.98 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 264.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 239.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 25c | 230.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed05…9368backed No | 57c | 226.94$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.69 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 65c | 178.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 41c | 161.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 54c | 149.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…9d97backed Yes | 39c | 120.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 36c | 98.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 33c | 97.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 94.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 40c | 90.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 38c | 82.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 46c | 80.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 77.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…2fe2backed Yes | 36c | 77.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 25c | 77.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 43c | 67.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 68c | 65.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…19fabacked Yes | 70c | 63.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 50c | 62.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…65ccbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 36c | 58.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 57.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 55.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 52.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 61c | 51.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 32c | 51.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 38c | 49.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 40c | 47.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 40c | 46.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 45.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 46c | 40.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 37c | 39.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 39.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 35c | 38.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 37c | 38.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 50c | 37.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 35.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 37c | 34.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 62c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 47c | 31.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…4b7bbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 37c | 29.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 28.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked No | 66c | 27.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 64c | 26.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 58c | 25.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 59c | 25.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 62c | 24.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…9757backed No | 52c | 23.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed No | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…41eebacked No | 61c | 22.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 57c | 22.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 66c | 21.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 63c | 21.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 62c | 20.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…0694backed No | 58c | 19.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 60c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 62c | 16.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 62c | 16.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 70°F or higher on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.