Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e19e0d8693b68966e689d5a67764cf912e58f99dc61226918c769a3b7e85258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 2c | 801.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 665$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 59c | 488.62$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.23 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 442.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 406.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 69c | 406.31$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.33 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 5c | 276.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 263.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.59 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 261.96$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.03 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 39c | 192.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.87 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 53c | 187.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 139.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 17c | 134.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.88 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 37c | 134.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ab…9c0ebacked Yes | 43c | 132.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 78c | 125.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 41c | 119.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 117.74$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 113.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 111.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 107.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 26c | 105.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 47c | 104.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 100.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 24c | 98.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes | 29c | 83.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 27c | 83.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 29c | 81.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 32c | 80.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 77.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 72.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 71.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed No | 37c | 69.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…2970backed Yes | 30c | 68.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 79c | 61.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc831…a849backed Yes | 33c | 59.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +167.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 30c | 58.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bee…de76backed Yes | 33c | 57.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 70c | 55.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 30c | 51.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 51.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 29c | 50.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…af6cbacked No | 72c | 47.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 55c | 44.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…416fbacked Yes | 33c | 42.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 39.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 68c | 36.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 36.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 28c | 36.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 62c | 33.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 43c | 33.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…b18ebacked Yes | 30c | 33.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked Yes | 38c | 32.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 69c | 31.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 74c | 29.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 71c | 29.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 25.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 76c | 21.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 51c | 20.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 79c | 19.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 76c | 17.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 74c | 17.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 17.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 15.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 70°F or higher on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.