Fifa International · resolved market
Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a6f8d312cc7280ae3c764a22731d414f5c2fe41cb5ccb96acdc4b4d9183d625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 13c | 1,015$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.65 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 56c | 500.32$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.57 | 445 | 39.6%176 W · 269 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Over | 20c | 450.1$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.18 | 112 | 17%19 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…fa8fbacked Under | 67c | 444.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…b000backed Over | 44c | 336.35$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.34 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Over | 43c | 232.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.74 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…17debacked Over | 73c | 124.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 34c | 61.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 60.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…88f8backed Over | 21c | 52.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe21c…3fd3backed Over | 35c | 51.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 43c | 47.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 65c | 42.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 40c | 38.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 374 | 58.8%220 W · 154 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 63c | 34.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 306 | 42.8%131 W · 175 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 68c | 29.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 66%97 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 58c | 29.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…bb2bbacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 4.5this page
- Belarus vs. Syria: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 0.5Over won
- Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 1.5Over won
- Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 2.5Over won
- Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 3.5Over won
- Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Belarus (-1.5)Belarus won
- Spread: Belarus (-2.5)Belarus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.