Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a798143dc1c9d38a12b0ffea9318a906f523bdcf76c8c11f24fca17e912f75a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eternal Fireof Team Liquid, Eternal Fire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbf9…d60bbacked Team Liquid | 19c | 1,502$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Eternal Fire | 80c | 1,154$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.41 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Eternal Fire | 76c | 1,037$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.89 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Team Liquid | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Team Liquid | 24c | 191$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Team Liquid | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Team Liquid | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 344 | 43.3%149 W · 195 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked Team Liquid | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Eternal Fire | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Eternal Fire | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Eternal Fire | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 188 | 66%124 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Eternal Fire | 78c | 18.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 60cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Eternal Fire | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)Eternal Fire won
- Valorant: Team Liquid vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group OmegaEternal Fire won
- Valorant: Team Liquid vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 WinnerEternal Fire won
- Valorant: Team Liquid vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 WinnerEternal Fire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.