NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aa8d816121fe9a9b2b89e996a31c9184aad91f816b9f0e87cb93594de1ffaa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Over | 53c | 2,290$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 54c | 1,846$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.13 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 46c | 809$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.87 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 440.79$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 46c | 413.93$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.41 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 47c | 356.32$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.47 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 47c | 342$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.52 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 48c | 254$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.92 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 199.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 51c | 59.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 54c | 55.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 45c | 54.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…c61bbacked Under | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…87e5backed Under | 54c | 40.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5this page
- Kings vs. JazzJazz won
- Kings vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Kings vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Kings vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Over won
- Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Jazz (-2.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.