Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aa943af2db108c4e61b44cfc6a716535bb8fa30cb560a27325a4d436194476e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dayton Flyersof Saint Louis Billikens, Dayton Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb44f…8c20backed Saint Louis Billikens | 54c | 4,512$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,456.49 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Dayton Flyers | 46c | 3,665$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,993.74 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Dayton Flyers | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Saint Louis Billikens | 52c | 498.24$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.74 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Dayton Flyers | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Dayton Flyers | 51c | 285.61$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.19 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Dayton Flyers | 54c | 148.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Dayton Flyers | 47c | 112.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Dayton Flyers | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…3102backed Saint Louis Billikens | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Dayton Flyers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…6ab9backed Saint Louis Billikens | 53c | 74.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Dayton Flyers | 52c | 68.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Saint Louis Billikens | 48c | 66.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Saint Louis Billikens | 57c | 43.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Saint Louis Billikens | 44c | 40.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Dayton Flyers | 49c | 36.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Dayton Flyers | 57c | 33.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09bd…a118backed Dayton Flyers | 57c | 31.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Dayton Flyers | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-4.5)this page
- Saint Louis Billikens vs. Dayton FlyersDayton Flyers won
- Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-3.5)Dayton Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.