TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dayton Flyersof Saint Louis Billikens, Dayton Flyers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,323

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,320 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb2f…eca9backed Dayton Flyers49c9,392$4,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,825.5911652.6%61 W · 55 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Saint Louis Billikens51c2,974$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.6248855.1%269 W · 219 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb44f…8c20backed Saint Louis Billikens52c2,147$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.555238.5%20 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Saint Louis Billikens51c1,944$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.2557248.1%275 W · 297 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Dayton Flyers49c1,896$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.5144549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Saint Louis Billikens53c1,813$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.5523941.4%99 W · 140 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Saint Louis Billikens49c1,800$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88212646.8%59 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Dayton Flyers51c1,487$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.579250%46 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Saint Louis Billikens51c991.25$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.542437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Saint Louis Billikens50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30025130.7%77 W · 174 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Dayton Flyers52c574.1$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.727550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8461…c6e4backed Saint Louis Billikens51c485.89$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.818245.1%82 W · 100 L-15.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Saint Louis Billikens51c388.73$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.257953.2%42 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Dayton Flyers44c374.99$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21093941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Saint Louis Billikens49c235.53$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.62,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc8c…d58cbacked Saint Louis Billikens50c206.65$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.088353%44 W · 39 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c11…02c8backed Saint Louis Billikens51c205.73$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Dayton Flyers50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10057448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Dayton Flyers51c195.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.6941554.2%225 W · 190 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c61…c54fbacked Saint Louis Billikens51c194.36$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.13450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Dayton Flyers50c148.69$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.341,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Dayton Flyers46c146.21$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.951,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Dayton Flyers48c104.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.164,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b70…3102backed Saint Louis Billikens52c85.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.619256.5%52 W · 40 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Dayton Flyers49c84.09$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.935,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Saint Louis Billikens50c59.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7431057.4%178 W · 132 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Saint Louis Billikens52c55.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Dayton Flyers45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.585248.8%416 W · 436 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Dayton Flyers44c44.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7689146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Saint Louis Billikens51c39.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2263551.5%327 W · 308 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c5…44a2backed Saint Louis Billikens51c32.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.644845.8%22 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74fe…8243backed Dayton Flyers51c23.32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.438952.8%47 W · 42 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.