Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x760064b52a48065325a903fb903346144d41d1354de407992f39e14ccb93e620
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dayton Flyersof Saint Louis Billikens, Dayton Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Dayton Flyers | 49c | 9,392$4,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,825.59 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Saint Louis Billikens | 51c | 2,974$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.62 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb44f…8c20backed Saint Louis Billikens | 52c | 2,147$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.55 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Saint Louis Billikens | 51c | 1,944$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.25 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Dayton Flyers | 49c | 1,896$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.51 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Saint Louis Billikens | 53c | 1,813$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.55 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Saint Louis Billikens | 49c | 1,800$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Dayton Flyers | 51c | 1,487$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.57 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Saint Louis Billikens | 51c | 991.25$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.54 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Saint Louis Billikens | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Dayton Flyers | 52c | 574.1$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.72 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Saint Louis Billikens | 51c | 485.89$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.8 | 182 | 45.1%82 W · 100 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Saint Louis Billikens | 51c | 388.73$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Dayton Flyers | 44c | 374.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Saint Louis Billikens | 49c | 235.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…d58cbacked Saint Louis Billikens | 50c | 206.65$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Saint Louis Billikens | 51c | 205.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Dayton Flyers | 51c | 195.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c61…c54fbacked Saint Louis Billikens | 51c | 194.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Dayton Flyers | 50c | 148.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Dayton Flyers | 46c | 146.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Dayton Flyers | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…3102backed Saint Louis Billikens | 52c | 85.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Dayton Flyers | 49c | 84.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Saint Louis Billikens | 50c | 59.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 310 | 57.4%178 W · 132 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Saint Louis Billikens | 52c | 55.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Dayton Flyers | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Dayton Flyers | 44c | 44.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Saint Louis Billikens | 51c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…44a2backed Saint Louis Billikens | 51c | 32.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Dayton Flyers | 51c | 23.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-3.5)this page
- Saint Louis Billikens vs. Dayton FlyersDayton Flyers won
- Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-4.5)Dayton Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.