Tennis · resolved market
ITF Wuning: Shu Muto vs Qian Sun
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ab8cd4979f28aa9ec605ee8235485ec1398e133f856dd19eaf2be014a3d56df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shu Mutoof Shu Muto, Qian Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Shu Muto | 65c | 4,687$3,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.2 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Qian Sun | 35c | 4,610$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.45 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f5…6070backed Qian Sun | 71c | 620.69$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Shu Muto | 29c | 600$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Qian Sun | 7c | 211$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Qian Sun | 73c | 137.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Shu Muto | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Qian Sun | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shu Muto | 27c | 79.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Qian Sun | 36c | 71.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Shu Muto | 31c | 63.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Qian Sun | 69c | 61.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Qian Sun | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Shu Muto | 28c | 58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Shu Muto | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Qian Sun | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Qian Sun | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 324 | 52.5%170 W · 154 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.