Mls · resolved market
Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1abbfdf16302ae84f2aa9b64b7871f5eb2abf7ff81c2a0dbe82ef4bd006f2574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portland Timbersof Portland Timbers, Sporting Kansas City
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Portland Timbers | 23c | 261.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.71 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Sporting Kansas City | 78c | 109$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sporting Kansas City | 78c | 102.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Sporting Kansas City | 76c | 99.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Sporting Kansas City | 33c | 81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Portland Timbers | 23c | 78.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Portland Timbers | 67c | 76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Portland Timbers | 65c | 68.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sporting Kansas City | 31c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sporting Kansas City | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Portland Timbers | 66c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Sporting Kansas City | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Sporting Kansas City | 72c | 16.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)this page
- Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.