Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85509a776d9837ecb44e9987bae5f94b6ec41f507d1416bee6a0c3812da00f49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 24c | 1,849$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.17 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 71c | 1,400$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 542.56$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.73 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Under | 13c | 395.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Under | 73c | 315.81$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.54 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 72c | 191$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.52 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 72c | 173$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 72c | 172.67$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 71c | 140.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…517cbacked Under | 59c | 140.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 70c | 89.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 30c | 78.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 62c | 68.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 74c | 64.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 72c | 63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 63c | 59.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 76c | 54.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…11ebbacked Under | 75c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 66c | 38.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 30c | 38.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 76c | 37.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 69c | 29.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 76c | 17.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.