MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1af4ffae028b964a32bc2fcbbeef600353e8e0f064f7ac07dc0efb5d3c996862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Chicago White Sox | 40c | 17,391$6,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,943.85 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 16,969$10,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,787.71 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Chicago White Sox | 24c | 5,506$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.32 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Chicago White Sox | 30c | 2,938$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.49 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Minnesota Twins | 70c | 2,359$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.7 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 1,330$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.02 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Minnesota Twins | 68c | 1,198$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.3 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 1,024$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.06 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Chicago White Sox | 29c | 423.43$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Minnesota Twins | 79c | 352.5$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Chicago White Sox | 21c | 230.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Minnesota Twins | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Chicago White Sox | 28c | 124.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 109.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 81.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Minnesota Twins | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Minnesota Twins | 71c | 33.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 23.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…5e12backed Minnesota Twins | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Minnesota Twins | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.