Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Santa Clara Broncos (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b264dd5a06f14469d34e08ae66766ad02b72c813a3c2eb02e99b89ebc1555a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Santa Clara Broncosof Santa Clara Broncos, Oregon State Beavers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac75…1319backed Santa Clara Broncos | 53c | 12,500$6,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,875 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Oregon State Beavers | 47c | 4,140$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.8 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Oregon State Beavers | 47c | 4,100$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Oregon State Beavers | 47c | 2,025$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.75 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +16.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Oregon State Beavers | 47c | 976$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.72 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Oregon State Beavers | 47c | 389.36$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Oregon State Beavers | 47c | 366$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.02 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon State Beavers | 47c | 334.6$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.26 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Santa Clara Broncos | 53c | 183.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Oregon State Beavers | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Oregon State Beavers | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Oregon State Beavers | 47c | 25.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Santa Clara Broncos (-5.5)this page
- Santa Clara Broncos vs. Oregon State BeaversSanta Clara Broncos won
- Santa Clara Broncos vs. Oregon State Beavers: O/U 150.5Over won
- Santa Clara Broncos vs. Oregon State Beavers: O/U 151.5Over won
- Santa Clara Broncos vs. Oregon State Beavers: O/U 152.5Over won
- Santa Clara Broncos vs. Oregon State Beavers: O/U 153.5Over won
- Spread: Santa Clara Broncos (-6.5)Santa Clara Broncos won
- Spread: Santa Clara Broncos (-7.5)Santa Clara Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.