Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b4294b95dc2be9f9a9b560620b44b1b6a13c076508cf6622882fc7fe2e682a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 16c | 1,173$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.13 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 489.72$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 401.63$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 35c | 265.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.84 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 212.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.43 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 51c | 182.36$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.88 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 27c | 175.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.88 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 50c | 153.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 22c | 149.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…bad0backed No | 8c | 147.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 20c | 147.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 74c | 141.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 77c | 130.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 77c | 129.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed Yes | 21c | 111.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 101.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 101.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 18c | 100.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 27c | 97.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 97.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 96.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 96.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 45c | 94.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 76c | 93.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 70c | 91.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 23c | 88.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 86.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 86.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…2099backed Yes | 23c | 76.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 23c | 70.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 77c | 68.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…53c7backed No | 79c | 67.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 65.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 64.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 21c | 62.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 27c | 56.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 26c | 39.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 77c | 38.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…87aebacked Yes | 26c | 38.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 66c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 79c | 37.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 78c | 25.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 54c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed No | 77c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…00c6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 73c | 19.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 80c | 18.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…fca3backed No | 78c | 17.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 79c | 12.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or below on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.