Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5844afc5970e3f3dab58e0f0853164afb0ec55082f5335bb7efdd083e7a0bd02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x556d…c115backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 74c | 805.6$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.84 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 7c | 535$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4acc…9bdabacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 210.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 196.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 147.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 111.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc23…d4cbbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…c9a7backed Yes | 53c | 94.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 89.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 53c | 86.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…23c8backed Yes | 46c | 78.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 63c | 72.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 39c | 69.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 41c | 61.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 69c | 60.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 48c | 59.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db0…4a9ebacked Yes | 68c | 57.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 52.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8990…38adbacked Yes | 43c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…7edfbacked Yes | 69c | 51.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 34c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 61c | 47.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 33c | 45.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…d5e9backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 48c | 41.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 65c | 36.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0531…2f56backed Yes | 58c | 33.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 50c | 33.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 56c | 32.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 33c | 32.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 37c | 31.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…87aebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…5024backed Yes | 68c | 29.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 59c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…4d6dbacked No | 52c | 28.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 73c | 22.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ff34backed Yes | 68c | 22.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 65c | 21.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or below on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.