Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b47e9d3b51729348b73c316a7f66e3920bbe1548583e1899d1d716697dee198
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 4c | 1,014$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 922$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 886.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 715.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 671.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 6c | 600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x378d…a852backed Yes | 7c | 407.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 404.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 4c | 394.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 7c | 341.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 21c | 317.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 19c | 268.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 16c | 219.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 17c | 202.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 13c | 183.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 7c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 177.67$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 30c | 164.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 8c | 164.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 14c | 163.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 14c | 162.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 23c | 152.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 142.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 15c | 137.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 127.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 16c | 122.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 11c | 103.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 18c | 98.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 17c | 92.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 13c | 85.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 82.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 16c | 79.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 23c | 79.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 17c | 79.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 21c | 61.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked Yes | 17c | 59.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 50.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 78c | 45.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked No | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…1d99backed No | 57c | 26.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 78c | 24.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…90d8backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…cd79backed No | 78c | 14.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.