TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Creighton Bluejays

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kansas State Wildcatsof Kansas State Wildcats, Creighton Bluejays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,811
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,292

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,811 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd218…b5c9backed Creighton Bluejays26c5,141$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.362,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc97…58a6backed Kansas State Wildcats47c2,138$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.86944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae9…74acbacked Kansas State Wildcats78c1,102$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.9415939%62 W · 97 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Creighton Bluejays10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Creighton Bluejays28c690.82$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.515,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Creighton Bluejays62c688.84$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.0812,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Kansas State Wildcats38c592$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.0433438.9%130 W · 204 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Creighton Bluejays64c546$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.441,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Creighton Bluejays36c523.91$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.911,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kansas State Wildcats37c508.93$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.714,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Creighton Bluejays15c422.95$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.63,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Creighton Bluejays24c337$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.082,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Creighton Bluejays65c311$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.412,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Kansas State Wildcats36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19229444.6%131 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf2…24d7backed Creighton Bluejays24c240.08$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.723429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Kansas State Wildcats80c210$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.11,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Creighton Bluejays34c184.09$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.594,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb07…0769backed Creighton Bluejays10c112.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22140%0 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Creighton Bluejays61c105.66$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.183,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…04f6backed Kansas State Wildcats37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634942.9%21 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Kansas State Wildcats40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6025438.2%97 W · 157 L-14.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Creighton Bluejays64c90$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.65450%27 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Creighton Bluejays31c60.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8110037%37 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x27ed…57ebbacked Creighton Bluejays63c51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.137255.6%40 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Kansas State Wildcats26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371,48743%639 W · 848 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Kansas State Wildcats63c49.37$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4673549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Kansas State Wildcats36c37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.682,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Creighton Bluejays56c36.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.485,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kansas State Wildcats34c36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.762,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf90c…f49cbacked Creighton Bluejays64c31.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick66cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2579…d6cbbacked Kansas State Wildcats36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22755.6%15 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f7…2894backed Kansas State Wildcats36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab2e…8b4bbacked Kansas State Wildcats36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.23253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Kansas State Wildcats76c29.91$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.071,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12af…0730backed Kansas State Wildcats37c29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.272152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0679…e5aabacked Kansas State Wildcats74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.22568%17 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ad…cc15backed Creighton Bluejays62c16.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f4…d0f6backed Creighton Bluejays64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.