Olympics · resolved market
Will Matthew Hudson-Smith (GBR) win gold in the Men’s 400m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b65a3b6d176903a95c7c6c3cf117c36565edf54aa89d5c2f32c500056b50b16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked Yes | 5c | 3,200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…1708backed Yes | 5c | 2,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed No | 46c | 1,145$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 32c | 1,111$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.52 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ca…f9e6backed Yes | 58c | 600$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 54c | 554.62$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.49 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 46c | 483.7$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.7 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 54c | 189.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Yes | 52c | 154$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 46c | 87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 44c | 53.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…0638backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 55c | 47.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…c28bbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70e…54bfbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Matthew Hudson-Smith (GBR) win gold in the Men’s 400m?this page
- Will Kirani James (GRN) win gold in the Men’s 400m?No won
- Will Michael Norman (USA) win gold in the Men’s 400m?No won
- Will Muzala Samukonga (ZAM) win gold in the Men’s 400m?No won
- Will Quincy Hall (USA) win gold in the Men’s 400m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.