Olympics · resolved market
Will Quincy Hall (USA) win gold in the Men’s 400m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x644351a29dc5bd94431fcfaeed97e0743a66fc8a07d73f5998ff957c59dfdd4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6126…6411backed No | 71c | 3,356$2,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked No | 12c | 2,666$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.92 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…1708backed No | 5c | 2,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed Yes | 33c | 1,525$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 67c | 1,409$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.05 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes | 33c | 1,324$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 28c | 934.99$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.19 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 27c | 550$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed No | 67c | 540.71$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.12 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…4e0fbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23b…8b75backed Yes | 35c | 112.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 19cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893e…a75bbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Quincy Hall (USA) win gold in the Men’s 400m?this page
- Will Kirani James (GRN) win gold in the Men’s 400m?No won
- Will Matthew Hudson-Smith (GBR) win gold in the Men’s 400m?No won
- Will Michael Norman (USA) win gold in the Men’s 400m?No won
- Will Muzala Samukonga (ZAM) win gold in the Men’s 400m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.