South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Puebla vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b78732a33403093de265661dd5521a7d5b6faf4fc4d216f2ac2b749ccb54b90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 55c | 563.64$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 563.06$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.23 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 263.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.13 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 183.25$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 51c | 101$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 53c | 74.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 66.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 43c | 65.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…7138backed Over | 31c | 64.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 63.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec6…a0d7backed Under | 48c | 61.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Over | 55c | 59.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 54c | 53.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 42c | 52.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaef2…b7d1backed Under | 47c | 49.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed94…68bcbacked Over | 54c | 45.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d86…89dfbacked Over | 54c | 45.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c84…578abacked Over | 54c | 43.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…fcd6backed Under | 48c | 40.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 56c | 40.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa168…8284backed Over | 54c | 37.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…6752backed Over | 54c | 29.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…8f1abacked Over | 55c | 28.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…8b56backed Under | 48c | 27.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcf…123ebacked Under | 47c | 26.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Puebla vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Club Puebla vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Puebla vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Club Puebla vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Puebla vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.