NFL · resolved market
Will the Lions and Commanders combine for 56 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b79ebed5755bf73afc153cfe4ca0a971b626b9bb0a3fd8e55a379b2ee4e74fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ce…ab3abacked Over | 51c | 1,960$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Under | 49c | 1,760$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.6 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Under | 50c | 799.98$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…e782backed Over | 50c | 799.98$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2400…f2b7backed Under | 49c | 420.92$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Under | 10c | 420.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Under | 48c | 308.95$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.38 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Under | 48c | 236.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…5a22backed Over | 52c | 112.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Under | 52c | 100.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…2a8ebacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…ded5backed Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…9e20backed Over | 52c | 51.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4adc…7639backed Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…5203backed Over | 52c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Lions and Commanders combine for 56 or more points?this page
- Will the Lions beat the Commanders by 9 or more points?Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.