NFL · resolved market
Will the Lions beat the Commanders by 9 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88bf3e48ba70674d818e8db52d5bc19936336b1d3fb43e141f4c4e5160a416d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Lions, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Commanders | 48c | 10,656$5,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,515.96 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…53c8backed Lions | 52c | 9,726$5,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,037.52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Commanders | 42c | 7,241$3,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,199.15 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Lions | 58c | 7,236$4,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,196.88 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Commanders | 51c | 1,673$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.77 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Lions | 49c | 1,573$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.77 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Lions | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Commanders | 53c | 539$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.33 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Lions | 47c | 539$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.33 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Lions | 50c | 200.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Lions | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…9441backed Lions | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Lions | 51c | 174.59$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Commanders | 49c | 160.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Lions | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Commanders | 51c | 113$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Commanders | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…1697backed Lions | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…a88ebacked Lions | 51c | 75.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4adc…7639backed Lions | 50c | 60.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Lions | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Lions | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x065f…ab50backed Lions | 51c | 32.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2558…9acebacked Lions | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Lions beat the Commanders by 9 or more points?this page
- Will the Lions and Commanders combine for 56 or more points?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.