Europa Conference League · resolved market
Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b82c7321b8c1dd0afe501723ef77caa9465ae4650104b92e176c48c79d3352d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 33c | 636.67$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.08 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Over | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 47c | 307$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.97 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 42c | 299.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…9d93backed Over | 53c | 294$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.18 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Under | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 47c | 261.06$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 62c | 233.06$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | +11.3wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 35c | 199.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9583…fa5dbacked Over | 65c | 143.28$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Under | 33c | 113.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 54c | 102$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 46c | 102$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 66c | 74.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Over | 51c | 45.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…9343backed Under | 38c | 45.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: UMF Stjarnan (-1.5)Víkingur won
- Spread: Víkingur (-1.5)UMF Stjarnan won
- Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 3.5Over won
- Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.