Europa Conference League · resolved market
Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe12e986b880ca707261e43fa7d11d6406dca2fb83591d7385cb43120b1f9eed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 46c | 1,677$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.64 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 4c | 1,274$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.61 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 54c | 884.97$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.97 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 54c | 443.17$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.31 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…311abacked Over | 50c | 438$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 438$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 7c | 258.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.9 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 55c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 41c | 169.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…4dacbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 6c | 164.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.74 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 41c | 159.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…2032backed Over | 42c | 100.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 51c | 59.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 58c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…3b2bbacked Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 57c | 28.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: UMF Stjarnan (-1.5)Víkingur won
- Spread: Víkingur (-1.5)UMF Stjarnan won
- Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.