Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1baca8338e2b25ca1cf132612516ac229a3bb0854b9f912edf2094321a1e7682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof AVULUS, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x762d…45a6backed AVULUS | 60c | 664$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.4 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Rune Eaters | 52c | 481.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.63 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed AVULUS | 62c | 201.58$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…84f6backed AVULUS | 26c | 190.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Rune Eaters | 40c | 156.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…255bbacked Rune Eaters | 75c | 132.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Rune Eaters | 48c | 115.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Rune Eaters | 38c | 110.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Rune Eaters | 47c | 97.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked AVULUS | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rune Eaters | 41c | 74.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked AVULUS | 51c | 50.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 48.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed AVULUS | 43c | 40.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed AVULUS | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…3f51backed AVULUS | 47c | 31.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5241…809ebacked Rune Eaters | 56c | 22.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed AVULUS | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 214 | 65%139 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsRune Eaters won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.