Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 159.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1baec9941310c5ff008fd69b5f3ae72fbf734275206c0e0acc5d1b5f77a05875
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,530 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 52c | 61,766$32,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,365.01 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 24,221$11,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,664.34 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 23,845$11,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,590.32 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 48c | 16,200$7,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,428 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +34.7wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 52c | 8,587$4,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,506.32 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 6,039$2,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,170.52 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 527.4$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.56 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 61c | 118.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 42c | 98.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 53c | 83.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 48c | 61.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…b6d0backed Under | 53c | 56.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 48c | 42.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…770fbacked Over | 79c | 30.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Over | 48c | 24.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…0e7fbacked Under | 52c | 24.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 47c | 21.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 50c | 21.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over | 70c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 159.5this page
- Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf PackNevada Wolf Pack won
- Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 160.5Over won
- Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 161.5Over won
- Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 162.5Over won
- Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-11.5)Nevada Wolf Pack won
- Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-5.5)Nevada Wolf Pack won
- Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-7.5)Nevada Wolf Pack won
- Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-8.5)Nevada Wolf Pack won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.