Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 161.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eec0488229150afa6561b71fa114ece7938d85826123621f35e3ca576342287
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,609 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 7,287$3,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,843.23 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 53c | 7,019$3,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,720.01 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 52c | 2,478$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.64 | 155 | 57.4%89 W · 66 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 1,687$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.11 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 900$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d66…22d1backed Under | 55c | 327.32$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.73 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3817…7d10backed Under | 54c | 307.92$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.27 | 298 | 45.3%135 W · 163 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 46c | 99.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked Under | 53c | 93.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Over | 48c | 69.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Over | 46c | 58.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Under | 55c | 36.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 47c | 33.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…d21abacked Over | 45c | 26.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Over | 46c | 24.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…0022backed Over | 48c | 23.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 161.5this page
- Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf PackNevada Wolf Pack won
- Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 159.5Over won
- Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 160.5Over won
- Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 162.5Over won
- Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-11.5)Nevada Wolf Pack won
- Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-5.5)Nevada Wolf Pack won
- Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-7.5)Nevada Wolf Pack won
- Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-8.5)Nevada Wolf Pack won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.