South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bd5d3615665542a8a979053deb0acc741cc6bf2426cfd8d793890c36e01c91f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 42c | 20,000$8,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,600 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 58c | 19,901$11,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,542.58 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…b87abacked No | 59c | 600$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…698bbacked Yes | 41c | 600$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 58c | 230.61$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.75 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 9c | 227.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 46c | 199.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…eab4backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 38c | 95.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 60c | 82.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…a89fbacked Yes | 39c | 79.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…6a7fbacked Yes | 50c | 79.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89f7…3643backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 40c | 47.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c5…9253backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…830fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 35c | 44.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12a7…1bdcbacked No | 52c | 38.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked No | 50c | 20.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c637backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5033…63c6backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-19?this page
- Will Mirassol FC vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-10-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.