World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bfd273a6df9df5e6fbac8d86da50db1892257fba44a4aa786bd7762eb3aa5cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…f41ebacked Yes | 2c | 987.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…e5aabacked Yes | 3c | 967.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 580.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 565.31$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.51 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 512.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 3c | 456$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 7c | 341.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 7c | 301.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 269.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 8c | 252$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 5c | 229.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 6c | 178.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 134.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 19c | 132$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 130.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 109.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 11c | 100.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…0893backed Yes | 11c | 100.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 23c | 91.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 15c | 71.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 58.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 18c | 55.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 19c | 54.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 26c | 53.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 31c | 50.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 48.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 32.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 78c | 28.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 26.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 80c | 24.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 75c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 78c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 80c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.