World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84016c37da0116d66c3d9a4a0a951563af11cc500c029b00e60856d0f24a7c5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 7c | 1,606$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 60c | 1,545$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.84 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 669.77$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.39 | 296 | 58.8%174 W · 122 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 5c | 653.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 552.5$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.88 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 63c | 500.58$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 46c | 472.67$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.78 | 110 | 35.5%39 W · 71 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 402.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.05 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 6c | 392.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 21c | 390$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…b04cbacked Yes | 46c | 387.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.73 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 341$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 45c | 337.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.07 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 34c | 320.61$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.03 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked No | 8c | 315.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 36c | 311.48$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…679bbacked No | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 64c | 298.69$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 270.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 459 | 29.2%134 W · 325 L | -69.3wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8033…0d2abacked No | 59c | 254.32$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 66c | 208.02$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 201.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 259 | 36.7%95 W · 164 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 79c | 199.44$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 41c | 199.13$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.73 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…0c7abacked No | 41c | 196.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 194.02$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.84 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 78c | 191.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 28c | 186.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.92 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 183.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 173.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.69 | 894 | 48.3%432 W · 462 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ad…9fa7backed No | 58c | 173.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 22c | 173$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…c0c2backed No | 58c | 171.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 38c | 158.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 147.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 12c | 144.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 48c | 141.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 136$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes | 54c | 134.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 53c | 134.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 132.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 46c | 129.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 50c | 124.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 51c | 117.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed No | 64c | 117.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 65c | 110.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 107.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 339 | 40.1%136 W · 203 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…e3e5backed No | 58c | 103.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…b99fbacked Yes | 47c | 95.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 53c | 94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 93.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 186 | 34.9%65 W · 121 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed No | 60c | 87.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 60c | 82.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…104cbacked Yes | 79c | 81.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 21c | 78.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 70c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 77.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 77.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 51c | 76.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 58c | 76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 75.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 1,344 | 44.3%595 W · 749 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 23c | 70.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 21c | 69.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 47c | 68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 19c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 65.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 267 | 32.6%87 W · 180 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 62.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 56c | 61.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 36c | 61.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 55c | 57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 56.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 54.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 79c | 53.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…2ed5backed Yes | 42c | 49.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 45c | 48.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 43c | 46.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 45c | 43.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebe…bfc2backed Yes | 45c | 41.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 51c | 40.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 40.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 33c | 39.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 44c | 36.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 190 | 37.9%72 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…740fbacked No | 57c | 35.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…056abacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.