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World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,112 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8929…733ebacked No7c1,606$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.085317%9 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes60c1,545$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.846162.3%38 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No23c669.77$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.3929658.8%174 W · 122 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No5c653.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.071421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes37c552.5$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.8810629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes63c500.58$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes46c472.67$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.7811035.5%39 W · 71 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes27c402.69$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.0511039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No6c392.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.582015%3 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-40%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No21c390$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.165250%26 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5470…b04cbacked Yes46c387.99$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.731560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c341$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.781936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes45c337.07$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.071369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+53.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes34c320.61$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.0311636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked No8c315.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.811910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked Yes36c311.48$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+105.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb82…679bbacked No10c300$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes64c298.69$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.194358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c270.84$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3545929.2%134 W · 325 L-69.3wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.2%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x8033…0d2abacked No59c254.32$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No13c250$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.455916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed Yes66c208.02$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3912055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No20c201.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2125936.7%95 W · 164 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes79c199.44$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes41c199.13$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.736533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb2…0c7abacked No41c196.81$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No58c194.02$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8421844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes78c191.36$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.361361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes28c186.47$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9216934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No44c183.41$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.415356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c173.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6989448.3%432 W · 462 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3ad…9fa7backed No58c173.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No22c173$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.772857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056d…c0c2backed No58c171.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No38c158.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6114656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes38c147.26$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.036336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked No12c144.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.88944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes48c141.23$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.233943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No21c136$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4941152.3%215 W · 196 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes54c134.21$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.77580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes53c134.06$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.035170.6%36 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c132.12$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5427521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1a…af71backed No46c129.51$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603050%15 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb719…c1e1backed No50c124.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes51c117.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.994868.8%33 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a72…9d77backed No64c117.4$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd92f…acacbacked Yes13c115.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.382433.3%8 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+62.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked No65c110.86$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes19c107.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.1133940.1%136 W · 203 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c0…e3e5backed No58c103.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No66c99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.343565.7%23 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x684b…b99fbacked Yes47c95.71$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked No53c94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes42c93.34$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2818634.9%65 W · 121 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f7…b535backed No60c87.89$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.082540%10 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No60c82.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505263.5%33 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcd3…104cbacked Yes79c81.98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes21c78.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.151637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes70c78$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.424254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No38c77.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.797560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes28c77.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5712238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No51c76.59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.282748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No58c76$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.081957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c75.49$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.551,34444.3%595 W · 749 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8cd…0d51backed No23c70.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.27837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef5e…b385backed No21c69.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No47c68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.91850%9 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No19c68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.24129.3%12 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No54c65.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1526732.6%87 W · 180 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No76c62.16$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.156462.5%40 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes56c61.89$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.535939%23 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes36c61.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No55c57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.351968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbad…8426backed Yes44c56.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.811030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2982…60ddbacked No55c56.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No68c54.48$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.225064%32 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9df…9571backed No79c53.51$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1510057%57 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed No25c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-52.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae99…2ed5backed Yes42c49.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.831154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes45c48.2$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4111545.2%52 W · 63 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes43c46.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.615341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.454647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes45c43.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8313155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ebe…bfc2backed Yes45c41.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No51c40.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.893751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.821457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes34c40.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6417338.2%66 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.878235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes33c39.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.284932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes57c38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.32737%10 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes39c38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.184233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes44c36.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.419037.9%72 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…740fbacked No57c35.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7eb…056abacked No57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes39c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4511354%61 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No37c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.982433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.