World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a9df792a7618f633a4239783341d48b16edb56300a8b74fa8ce3c92795424a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 16c | 814.32$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.9 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 5c | 757.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 585.98$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.84 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 10c | 557.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 33c | 513.61$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 16c | 458.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 13c | 411.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 12c | 351.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 336.13$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 334.01$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 12c | 312.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 34c | 308.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 39c | 308.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.34 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 237.24$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 8c | 229.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 41c | 219.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.96 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…104cbacked Yes | 37c | 214.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 200.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 6c | 195$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 78c | 167.46$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 158.6$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…d94fbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 23c | 117.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 10c | 117$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 54c | 116.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 116.17$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 17c | 115.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 110.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…01e6backed No | 70c | 107.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 105.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 62c | 103.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 70c | 102.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 95.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 78.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 39c | 76.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 76.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 76.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 15c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 74.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 34c | 74.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 73.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 44c | 72.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 48c | 71.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 43c | 65.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 63.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 54c | 63.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 34c | 61.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 69c | 59.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes | 54c | 57.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 41c | 56.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 65c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 53.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 66c | 53.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 44c | 52.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 50.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…1181backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 76c | 49.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 35c | 48.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked Yes | 54c | 42.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +88%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebe…bfc2backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 36c | 41.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 32c | 40.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…4349backed No | 75c | 40.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 39.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 64c | 39.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 59c | 38.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 56c | 35.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 31.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 77c | 31.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 60c | 30.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.