NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c1b7b71938d99b5d38ba6ec7cc378a532d273b10d3aeb43ccd7f56ab77c010e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Penguins, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67d8…0649backed Penguins | 31c | 23,900$7,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,491 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb12…4c15backed Sabres | 69c | 23,900$16,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,491 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins | 32c | 358$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.49 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Penguins | 28c | 177.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.62 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Penguins | 30c | 168.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.98 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Sabres | 72c | 125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Penguins | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Sabres | 68c | 78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…7246backed Sabres | 72c | 72.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Sabres | 68c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Sabres | 68c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Penguins | 30c | 47.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…53c3backed Sabres | 70c | 45.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…f95dbacked Sabres | 70c | 45.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…8f27backed Sabres | 71c | 45.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…f70abacked Sabres | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Penguins | 29c | 40.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Sabres | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…367fbacked Sabres | 70c | 31.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee1a…5a46backed Sabres | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Sabres | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Sabres | 68c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Sabres vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.