Tennis · resolved market
Samsun: Arda Azkara vs Yanki Erel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c34687ae6c1f8d108c5fedc3dc19df4342a37495a4e475f2559f0c41f8262d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yanki Erelof Arda Azkara, Yanki Erel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yanki Erel | 78c | 7,092$5,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.31 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arda Azkara | 22c | 4,468$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.99 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arda Azkara | 20c | 1,614$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.89 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yanki Erel | 78c | 1,613$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.03 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Arda Azkara | 22c | 1,307$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.77 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Arda Azkara | 18c | 1,050$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.15 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…126abacked Arda Azkara | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Arda Azkara | 22c | 977.27$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 326 | 37.4%122 W · 204 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Arda Azkara | 23c | 897.69$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.66 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Arda Azkara | 22c | 599.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Arda Azkara | 19c | 529.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Arda Azkara | 23c | 471.58$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Arda Azkara | 9c | 393.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 277 | 24.9%69 W · 208 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Arda Azkara | 6c | 304.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Yanki Erel | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Yanki Erel | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Arda Azkara | 20c | 247.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Yanki Erel | 78c | 246.36$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 119 | 48.7%58 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Yanki Erel | 76c | 225.97$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Arda Azkara | 22c | 136.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0f…8033backed Yanki Erel | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Arda Azkara | 9c | 124.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Arda Azkara | 15c | 101.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Arda Azkara | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Yanki Erel | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Arda Azkara | 21c | 98.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Arda Azkara | 19c | 95.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Arda Azkara | 21c | 95.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Arda Azkara | 23c | 87.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 306 | 44.1%135 W · 171 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Yanki Erel | 79c | 64.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arda Azkara | 23c | 52.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…7982backed Arda Azkara | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 97 | 22.7%22 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked Arda Azkara | 22c | 45.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…b45dbacked Yanki Erel | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 223 | 77.6%173 W · 50 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 77cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Yanki Erel | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yanki Erel | 77c | 29.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed Yanki Erel | 77c | 26.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 205 | 70.7%145 W · 60 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Yanki Erel | 77c | 25.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yanki Erel | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yanki Erel | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yanki Erel | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yanki Erel | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Yanki Erel | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yanki Erel | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Samsun: Arda Azkara vs Yanki Erelthis page
- Azkara vs. Erel: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Azkara vs ErelErel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.