Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c3900c0745f9bc1d885eab45d5e7870e59b503bc6e26190033dacde1217a7af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 307.78$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 223.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.52 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 213.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 209.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.99 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 159.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 64c | 157.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 148$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 45c | 108.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 33c | 107.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 37c | 105.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 105.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 65c | 103.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 26c | 101.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 27c | 92.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 80.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 72c | 68.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 33c | 67.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 71c | 64.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 52c | 56.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 71c | 55.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed Yes | 35c | 54.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 53c | 52.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 78c | 50.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 70c | 49.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 71c | 48.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 61c | 48.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 32c | 47.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 31c | 43.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 36c | 41.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7849backed Yes | 71c | 38.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 33c | 37.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 37.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 31c | 32.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes | 59c | 32.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 36c | 32.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 71c | 32.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 52c | 32.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 72c | 32.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 72c | 31.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 72c | 31.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 75c | 31.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 70c | 31.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 51c | 29.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…e82fbacked No | 36c | 28.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 73c | 26.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…47dabacked Yes | 43c | 26.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 72c | 25.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…8297backed Yes | 76c | 21.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…f612backed Yes | 64c | 19.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…9cd6backed Yes | 69c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 76c | 17.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.