South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Peñarol vs. CA Platense: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c40d1eb2244345f109500360d07b5df2ef67b12266a3c0a1c3e73f756f904d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked Under | 46c | 6,336$2,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,902.45 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…eab7backed Over | 55c | 749$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…14edbacked Over | 66c | 499.98$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 54c | 399.38$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.71 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 34c | 360.34$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 59c | 328.45$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 55c | 308.32$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.91 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 245.91$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.66 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 40c | 133.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 406 | 51%207 W · 199 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 59c | 126.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 34c | 122.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 55c | 77.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 56.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 42c | 39.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc0…749abacked Under | 43c | 35.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea77…686ebacked Over | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 55c | 29.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…9303backed Over | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 46c | 23.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Peñarol vs. CA Platense: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Peñarol vs. CA Platense: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Peñarol vs. CA Platense: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Peñarol vs. CA Platense: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Peñarol vs. CA Platense: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Peñarol (-1.5)CA Platense won
- Spread: CA Platense (-1.5)CA Peñarol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.