World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c72480e6ca7fd7874223767da95b1b8f75169e1b277059b25f3b0a7e2986154
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 1,986$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.07 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 78c | 967.79$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.29 | 15 | 100%15 W · 0 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 2c | 573.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 348.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 58c | 248$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 50c | 233.07$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 54c | 214.17$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.73 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 46c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 196$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 55c | 177.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 165.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 157.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 147.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 142.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 102.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 99.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 97.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 96.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 52c | 95.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 91.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed No | 60c | 71.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 49c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 51c | 61.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 60.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 51c | 52.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 51c | 45.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 41.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 40.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 64c | 39.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 36.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 35.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 31.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 46c | 30.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 38c | 28.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a06…105fbacked Yes | 47c | 25.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…7d51backed No | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ad…adb4backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.