NHL · resolved market
SHL: Timraa vs. Oerebro HK
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c7396fb7226d10ff48eaf4bbee9e9c07260831e2609c4ed6956a24e7e939be2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timraaof Timraa, Oerebro HK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14ad…9199backed Oerebro HK | 3c | 3,582$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2784…c374backed Oerebro HK | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7a…b288backed Oerebro HK | 39c | 1,356$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b36…cd58backed Timraa | 59c | 1,048$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d6…8ff9backed Oerebro HK | 41c | 940$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d7…e896backed Oerebro HK | 38c | 812$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Timraa | 59c | 725.56$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.85 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a0…fdbbbacked Oerebro HK | 39c | 619$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…e50ebacked Oerebro HK | 39c | 568$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…61d9backed Oerebro HK | 38c | 534.99$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x586c…7667backed Oerebro HK | 39c | 533$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…ea5abacked Timraa | 59c | 498$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ff…ebe9backed Timraa | 60c | 483$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a9…4763backed Oerebro HK | 39c | 472$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…44bdbacked Timraa | 59c | 452$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c61…ae77backed Timraa | 63c | 426$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22b…177bbacked Timraa | 62c | 419$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…5872backed Timraa | 62c | 393$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…9b96backed Timraa | 59c | 391$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…cf22backed Timraa | 61c | 311$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…7d14backed Timraa | 61c | 308$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Oerebro HK | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…743cbacked Timraa | 61c | 296$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…9b1fbacked Timraa | 61c | 295$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…85dbbacked Timraa | 62c | 294$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…928cbacked Timraa | 61c | 272$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbf…d298backed Timraa | 61c | 268$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…e4edbacked Timraa | 62c | 241$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…92f5backed Timraa | 61c | 238$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Oerebro HK | 39c | 220$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 492 | 49.6%244 W · 248 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…2357backed Timraa | 61c | 204$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Oerebro HK | 39c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Oerebro HK | 38c | 52.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6467…7cadbacked Oerebro HK | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Timraa | 61c | 44.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Oerebro HK | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x585a…4eebbacked Timraa | 62c | 23.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x454d…2bf7backed Timraa | 61c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…12d7backed Timraa | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.