NHL · resolved market
Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ca24b47ebde2602e5b165a4283d444a153848ec560a295a6577fb1cf10d6178
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Over | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 50c | 7,955$3,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,977.71 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 52c | 630.77$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 52c | 489$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.59 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 461$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.5 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 48c | 444$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.88 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Under | 51c | 294.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 227.78$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…2069backed Over | 52c | 193.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Under | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 260 | 59.6%155 W · 105 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Blue Jackets vs. Maple LeafsBlue Jackets won
- Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Blue Jackets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.