Commodities · resolved market
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cad3be294c449269375383f975ba179e16ce18ce68ef1f4931634bb30d332c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Down | 8c | 1,224$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…2af8backed Down | 30c | 999.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 2c | 530.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,038 | 9.2%96 W · 942 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 70c | 363$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.93 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e90…f911backed Up | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…d8ccbacked Down | 22c | 268.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ec…5ce3backed Up | 76c | 131.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3456…26d2backed Up | 70c | 127.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…1219backed Up | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…28e1backed Up | 76c | 66.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Down | 23c | 45.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75de…98c0backed Up | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4815…f8b4backed Up | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Up | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ee…b56ebacked Up | 80c | 18.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9391…f782backed Up | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.