Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ccca26b89c76c45df8dd9a6d1da7f5aa05714acd8872eb3e11a9896cd50b440
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 5,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…2e89backed No | 3c | 1,660$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…bd34backed No | 1c | 1,122$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 9c | 1,033$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 43c | 482.63$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.96 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 409.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 322$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.56 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 25c | 201.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 18c | 180.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 17c | 125.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…c9b2backed Yes | 54c | 112.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 15c | 105.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 25c | 99.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…f5dcbacked Yes | 40c | 99.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 24c | 94.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 15c | 91.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 28c | 86.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 72c | 65.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 48c | 61.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 20c | 51.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 32c | 43.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 49c | 39.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 37.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 68c | 34.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 38c | 34.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 29.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 79c | 25.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or higher on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.