Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cd07f0e0c24992bd20edc094f32967c30cc420573f3640b58c9e2b65ea4d8e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 49,063$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 30c | 848.09$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.69 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 285.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 68c | 252.38$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.16 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 50c | 209.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 55c | 185.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 13c | 182.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 72c | 176.23$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 30c | 154.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.96 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…bfbebacked Yes | 72c | 135.12$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 50c | 122.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 73c | 104.76$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 23c | 104.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 21c | 102.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 80c | 98.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 96.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 85.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 18c | 83.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 71.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 23c | 66.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 77c | 59.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 21c | 58.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…426fbacked Yes | 61c | 57.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…6e6dbacked No | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 49c | 54.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 23c | 43.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked No | 72c | 42.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 42.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 30c | 41.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 75c | 40.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 38.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 59c | 25.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 80c | 24.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 72c | 19.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed No | 66c | 17.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.