Boxing · resolved market
Matchroom Boxing: Allen vs Makhmudov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d0e0823823429982f0dcf294eca53405641308a4a357446a75e829f01832b1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Makhmudovof Allen, Makhmudov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a69…a466backed Makhmudov | 51c | 5,961$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Allen | 49c | 5,567$2,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,727.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1923…3b76backed Allen | 50c | 329.1$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Makhmudov | 66c | 280.14$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Makhmudov | 46c | 239$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.18 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Allen | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Makhmudov | 51c | 90.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Makhmudov | 49c | 78.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Allen | 50c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Makhmudov | 50c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc665…9ba3backed Allen | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…ccb7backed Allen | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b6…2765backed Allen | 50c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Allen | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Matchroom Boxing: Allen vs Makhmudovthis page
- Matchroom Boxing: Padley vs BellottiPadley won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.