Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d3c499ae703a667798104efd5be77f38bf5847154c98aa8ce430e2b7acec562
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 29c | 1,202$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.47 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 35c | 616.73$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.34 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 48c | 391.73$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.7 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 340.78$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 226.07$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 200.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 51c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 37c | 188.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 163$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 9c | 148.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 117$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 110.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 50c | 103.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 62c | 93.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 93.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…4076backed Yes | 43c | 92.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 85.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 70.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 69.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 47c | 60.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb63…e6dbbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 42c | 49.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 40c | 48.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 48c | 42.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…59c8backed Yes | 28c | 36.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 45c | 33.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 43c | 30.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 42c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 37c | 29.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 38c | 26.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 65c | 23.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 4?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.