Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x203e827d0577c7a85316e27a4864889dad963e29c58256075ec0a219b7a06036
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 32c | 522.26$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.33 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 36c | 330$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.9 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 256.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 254.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 49c | 206$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 18c | 195.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 73c | 170.87$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…b490backed Yes | 71c | 160.02$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed No | 22c | 150.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 57c | 145.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 126.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 214 | 32.7%70 W · 144 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 117$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 33c | 113.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 103.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 1,912 | 55.5%1,062 W · 850 L | +6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 102.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 27c | 92.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 45c | 83.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 79.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 58c | 74.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 493 | 32.9%162 W · 331 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 51c | 60.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 164 | 36%59 W · 105 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 38c | 55.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 185 | 42.2%78 W · 107 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 31c | 47.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 1,847 | 27.6%509 W · 1,338 L | +24.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…3a91backed Yes | 76c | 40.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 306 | 52.3%160 W · 146 L | -32.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 32c | 38.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 53c | 36.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 45c | 33.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 59c | 30.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed Yes | 37c | 27.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 46c | 26.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 364 | 22.8%83 W · 281 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 69c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 15.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 4?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.