Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d3db15e5433ccbbf5f20fb21d04b0dbba84586ef9c34ec4319f4a4631d4efd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,550$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…7c57backed Yes | 16c | 1,351$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.66 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cf…6500backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 13c | 700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…a74fbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 9c | 473.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 6c | 421$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9509…3afdbacked Yes | 8c | 236.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 10c | 231.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…0265backed Yes | 20c | 221.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…4089backed Yes | 15c | 217.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…e1cbbacked Yes | 14c | 216.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +95%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 7c | 159.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 24c | 134.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…b496backed Yes | 8c | 122$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…64bfbacked Yes | 18c | 62.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb55…5e8abacked No | 79c | 33.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7c…623abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ba…a409backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of January?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $60 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $62 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $65 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $42 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.